surprise surprise

I really enjoyed the chapter on why systems surprise us. In particular, I enjoyed the distinction between viewing things as a series of events as opposed to patterns of behavior. I was reminded about Issac Asimov's Foundation series. In the book a new science is developed that takes systems thinking to the ultimate level and allows masters to make accurate predictions many thousands of years into the future. Of course, just as Meadows suggests, it is the nonlinear factors that trip us up. However, linearity breaks down if you go deep enough into the fabric of space. Physics suggests that our universe may not be as linear as we generally perceive it to be. Imagine being able to think and act from the level at which linearity breaks down...

I feel that the reason systems surprise us is that few understand the location of a defined set of boundaries within the larger system. If you can understand the overarching principles that gave rise to our universe, then one is better able to properly place any given system on the map and will be less prone to unexpected surprises. The problem is not that we tend to focus on events, nor that we have difficulty anticipating nonlinear factors, but that we lack the understanding of the underlying structure of all systems and the agility to know when to use each specific tool in our systems thinking tool box. Clearly psychology has a place in the tool box. How else are we to understand bounded rationality?